Geopolitical strain pushes Israel and Türkiye further apart
Relations between Israel and Türkiye are further deteriorating amid mounting allegations and rising regional tensions
As the possibility of a United States strike on Iran appears to be increasing, Israeli political leaders are beginning to shift their focus toward another regional rival: Türkiye.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is widely expected to contest and perform strongly in this year’s elections, recently described Türkiye as a potential threat to Israel. Speaking at a conference last week, Bennett warned that Israel should not “turn a blind eye” to Türkiye, claiming that it could become part of a regional axis comparable to the one associated with Tehran.
“A new Turkish threat is emerging,” Bennett stated, adding that Israel must address both the challenge posed by Tehran and what he described as hostility coming from Ankara.
In recent months, several Israeli politicians have voiced similar concerns about Türkiye, which has been an outspoken critic of Israel’s policies toward the Palestinians and its war in Gaza, while also strengthening relations with regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
The rhetoric suggests that although the Iranian government remains in power in Tehran, Israel may already be searching for another regional adversary while simultaneously building a network of allied states.
On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while announcing an upcoming visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, spoke of forming a new “hexagon” of alliances designed to counter what he described as an emerging radical Sunni axis and to reinforce Israel’s regional influence.
According to Netanyahu, the proposed alignment could include countries such as Greece and Cyprus, both of which have historically experienced tensions with Türkiye.
However, some analysts question the timing and narrative surrounding the growing discourse about Türkiye as a threat. Former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas suggested that political leaders often rely on the perception of ongoing threats.
“Politicians like Bennett and Netanyahu depend on the constant presence of a potential conflict,” Pinkas said. “If it is not Türkiye, it becomes Iraq; if not Iraq, then Hezbollah; if not Hezbollah, then the Muslim Brotherhood. There always has to be a threat.”
Deteriorating Relations
Israel has remained in a heightened state of conflict since the attack led by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Since then, Israel has carried out military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria, while tensions with Iran have also escalated and moves toward annexation in the occupied West Bank have drawn international criticism.
Against this backdrop, analysts say the renewed emphasis on additional threats and new alliances fits into a broader strategic narrative. Despite being political rivals, Netanyahu and Bennett share similar right-wing positions, particularly their opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state and their vision of expanding Israel’s regional influence.
Political analyst Ori Goldberg noted that Bennett’s approach has long reflected this outlook. According to Goldberg, some observers previously viewed Bennett differently simply because he opposed Netanyahu, but the ideological differences between the two leaders are limited.
Complex Israel–Türkiye Dynamics
Framing Türkiye as a major threat is complicated by the long-standing relationship between the two countries and Türkiye’s membership in NATO. Historically, Israel and Türkiye maintained pragmatic relations, even though disagreements over Palestinian issues frequently caused diplomatic friction.
However, ties have deteriorated significantly during the leadership of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has become increasingly critical of Israeli policies.
One major turning point came in 2010 when Israeli forces intercepted a Gaza-bound flotilla, resulting in the deaths of 10 Turkish activists. The incident sharply worsened diplomatic relations and intensified political tensions between the two countries.
Subsequent Israeli military operations in Gaza and Syria have further fueled anger in Ankara, leaving bilateral relations strained and making any potential Turkish role in Gaza’s future security arrangements highly controversial within Israel.
Even so, analysts argue that equating Türkiye with Iran is a stretch.
Pinkas pointed out that Israel and Türkiye have cooperated many times in the past. Not long ago, some policymakers even described the Middle East as being influenced by two major powers Israel and Türkiye standing in contrast to Iran.
“Türkiye is a NATO member,” Pinkas noted, adding that its leadership has never denied Israel’s right to exist or threatened its destruction.
The “Hexagon” Strategy
Although Israel’s alliance with the United States remains its most important strategic pillar, Netanyahu is also seeking to expand Israel’s diplomatic network.
According to his proposal, India could play a key role in a new alliance framework that may include Greece, Cyprus, and several Arab, African, and Asian states.
Netanyahu argued that this alignment would counter both what he described as a radical Shia axis and a rising radical Sunni bloc, though he did not specify the countries involved.
Some analysts believe this initiative reflects concerns in Israel that political support in the United States is becoming more contentious, prompting Tel Aviv to diversify its partnerships.
Goldberg described the move as a sign of political pressure, arguing that Israel’s leadership is attempting to construct a new coalition after damaging previous relationships.
Meanwhile, Yossi Mekelberg, an expert associated with Chatham House, suggested that the primary strategic focus remains Iran, and that the emphasis on Türkiye may be more rhetorical than practical.
Still, Mekelberg warned that increasing hostile rhetoric toward Türkiye carries potential risks.
According to him, while experienced political leaders can often separate rhetoric from reality, continued escalation in language could eventually turn a political narrative into an actual geopolitical confrontation.
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