Jordan Could Be Next”: West Bank Annexation Points to a ‘Quiet Displacement’ Strategy
Former officials and policy strategists caution that Israel’s updated land registration laws, coupled with mounting military pressure in the occupied West Bank, may represent the final step toward the so-called “alternative homeland” scenario
For decades, the idea of an “alternative homeland” — the proposition that Jordan should serve as the Palestinian state — was dismissed within Amman’s diplomatic circles as either a far-fetched nightmare or a conspiracy theory.
Today, however, under the shadow of a far-right Israeli government and the devastating war in Gaza, that once-dismissed scenario is increasingly viewed in Jordan as a tangible and unfolding reality.
Alarm bells rang loudly in the Hashemite Kingdom after the Israeli cabinet approved new measures transferring authority over vast areas of the occupied West Bank to Israel’s Ministry of Justice, registering them as “state land.” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich described the step as a “settlement revolution,” effectively sidestepping the military administration that has governed the territory since 1967 and instead treating it as sovereign Israeli land.
In Amman’s view, this bureaucratic annexation signals the death of the status quo. As Israel’s “Iron Wall” operation intensifies pressure on refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, Jordan’s leadership is no longer debating whether forced displacement could occur, but rather how to prevent it.
“The transfer is no longer merely a threat; it is entering implementation,” former Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister Mamdouh al-Abbadi told Al Jazeera. “We are witnessing its practical application. The alternative homeland scenario is approaching. After the West Bank, the move could extend toward the East Bank — toward Jordan.”
The “Silent Transfer”
Jordanian fears extend beyond the prospect of direct military invasion. Officials increasingly warn of a “soft” or gradual displacement strategy — rendering life in the West Bank unbearable to trigger a steady exodus toward Jordan.
The transfer of land registration authority to Israel’s Justice Ministry is seen in Amman as a pivotal step in this direction. By overriding Jordanian and Ottoman-era land registries that have safeguarded Palestinian property rights for generations, Israel is, in Jordan’s assessment, laying the legal groundwork for expansive settlement growth.
Al-Abbadi also highlighted symbolic shifts in Israeli military terminology, pointing to the naming of a new Israeli army unit as the “Gilead Brigade” — a reference to a mountainous region near Amman. To him, such symbolism reflects broader ideological ambitions.
He further argued that the 1994 Wadi Araba peace treaty has, in practical terms, been undermined by Israel’s current political leadership.
According to al-Abbadi, what was once considered the ideology of a single political figure has now evolved into state doctrine. He warned that unless Jordan recalibrates its response, it may face a binary strategic reality: “either us or them.”
Military Calculations and “Existential Defence”
As diplomatic options narrow, attention has increasingly shifted to military preparedness. The Jordan Valley — the geographic buffer between the two sides — is now regarded by Jordanian strategists as the frontline of an existential defence.
Retired Major-General Mamoun Abu Nowar characterized Israel’s policies as amounting to an “undeclared war.” He suggested Jordan might declare the Jordan Valley a closed military zone if displacement pressures escalate — a move that could risk broader confrontation.
While acknowledging the imbalance in military capabilities, Abu Nowar stressed Jordan’s social cohesion as a strategic asset, describing tribal and communal structures as forming a “second army” that would resist external threats.
Still, he cautioned that the situation remains volatile, warning that escalation in the West Bank could trigger a wider regional crisis.
The Erosion of the US Security Umbrella
Compounding Jordan’s concerns is growing skepticism about American backing. For decades, the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom was a cornerstone of US regional policy.
Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Center for Political Studies, argued that this strategic assumption has weakened significantly. He pointed to a shift beginning during former US President Donald Trump’s first term, when Washington’s regional focus pivoted toward Gulf states.
Al-Rantawi suggested that when forced to choose between allies, Washington consistently prioritizes Israel — leaving Jordan in a precarious position, dependent on US assistance yet uncertain of meaningful security guarantees.
Abu Nowar echoed this doubt, questioning whether Jordan’s designation as a major non-NATO ally translates into concrete defence commitments.
Reassessing Regional Alliances
Facing what many perceive as diplomatic isolation, some voices in Amman are calling for a reassessment of Jordan’s regional relationships. Historically, Jordan maintained formal ties with the Palestinian Authority while distancing itself from Hamas and other factions.
Al-Rantawi argued this approach limited Jordan’s leverage, particularly compared to states such as Qatar, Egypt, and Turkiye, which maintained communication channels with multiple Palestinian actors.
He suggested that domestic political sensitivities shaped Jordan’s cautious posture, but that the cost may now be reduced regional influence at a critical moment.
Preparing for Uncertainty
Among Jordan’s political elite, the discourse has shifted from issuing warnings to preparing for contingencies.
In early February, Jordan reinstated compulsory military service under the “Flag Service” programme after a 35-year suspension, citing the need to enhance readiness amid complex regional dynamics.
Calls for broader societal mobilisation have also intensified. Some officials advocate expanded conscription and stricter border monitoring, particularly at the King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge, to prevent any gradual or disguised population transfer.
As Israel’s legal and military policies reshape realities in the West Bank, Jordan finds itself confronting one of its most precarious moments in decades. Many in Amman believe the traditional buffer separating the kingdom from direct geopolitical shockwaves is eroding.
“The world issues statements and condemnations — and Israel acts,” al-Abbadi remarked. “If we fail to act decisively, we may face a stark choice. There may be no third path.”
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